Long-term yield of pancreatic cancer surveillance in high-risk individuals.

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We aimed to determine the long-term yield of pancreatic cancer surveillance in hereditary predisposed high-risk individuals.From 2006 to 2019, we prospectively enrolled asymptomatic individuals with an estimated 10% or greater lifetime risk of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) after obligatory evaluation by a clinical geneticist and genetic testing, and subjected them to annual surveillance with both endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) and MRI/cholangiopancreatography (MRI/MRCP) at each visit.366 individuals (201 mutation-negative familial pancreatic cancer (FPC) kindreds and 165 PDAC susceptibility gene mutation carriers; mean age 54 years, SD 9.9) were followed for 63 months on average (SD 43.2). Ten individuals developed PDAC, of which four presented with a symptomatic interval carcinoma and six underwent resection. The cumulative PDAC incidence was 9.3% in the mutation carriers and 0% in the FPC kindreds (p<0.001). Median PDAC survival was 18 months (range 1-32). Surgery was performed in 17 individuals (4.6%), whose pathology revealed 6 PDACs (3 T1N0M0), 7 low-grade precursor lesions, 2 neuroendocrine tumours <2 cm, 1 autoimmune pancreatitis and in 1 individual no abnormality. There was no surgery-related mortality. EUS detected more solid lesions than MRI/MRCP (100% vs 22%, p<0.001), but less cystic lesions (42% vs 83%, p<0.001).The diagnostic yield of PDAC was substantial in established high-risk mutation carriers, but non-existent in the mutation-negative proven FPC kindreds. Nevertheless, timely identification of resectable lesions proved challenging despite the concurrent use of two imaging modalities, with EUS outperforming MRI/MRCP. Overall, surveillance by imaging yields suboptimal results with a clear need for more sensitive diagnostic markers, including biomarkers.


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Authors: Kasper A Overbeek, Iris J M Levink, Brechtje D M Koopmann, Femme Harinck, Ingrid C A W Konings, Margreet G E M Ausems, Anja Wagner, Paul Fockens, Casper H van Eijck, Bas Groot Koerkamp, Olivier R C Busch, Marc G Besselink, Barbara A J Bastiaansen, Lydi M J W van Driel, Nicole S Erler, Frank P Vleggaar, Jan-Werner Poley, Djuna L Cahen, Jeanin E van Hooft, Marco J Bruno, Dutch Familial Pancreatic Cancer Surveillance Study Group

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