Incidence of Paget's Disease of Bone in the UK: Evidence of a Continuing Decline.

To characterise the incidence of clinically diagnosed Paget's disease of bone in the UK during 1999-2015 and to determine variation in incidence of disease by age, sex, geography and level of deprivation.Incident cases of Paget's disease occurring between 1999-2015 were identified from primary care records. Overall crude incidence and incidence stratified by age and sex was calculated each year from 1999-2015. Direct age- and sex-standardised incidence was also calculated. We used Poisson regression to look at variation in incidence by deprivation and UK region.3,592 incident cases of Paget's disease were identified between 1999-2015. Incidence increased with age and at all ages was greater in men than women. In women and men, respectively, crude incidence increased from 0.037 and 0.074 per 10 000 population per year among those aged 45-49 years to 3.7 and 6.3 per 10 000 population per year among those 85 years and older. Overall standardised incidence reduced from 0.75/10 000 person-years in 1999-0.20/10 000 person-years in 2015. After adjustment for age and sex, incidence was >30% higher in the most, compared with least deprived quintile of deprivation. There was evidence of geographic variation, with highest incidence in the North West of England, which persisted after adjustment for age, sex, and level of deprivation.The incidence of clinically diagnosed Paget's disease has continued to decrease since 1999. The reason for the decline in incidence remains unknown though the rapidity of change points to an alteration in one or more environmental determinants.

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Authors: Michael J Cook, Stephen R Pye, Mark Lunt, William G Dixon, Darren M Ashcroft, Terence W O'Neill