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Heart failure cases set to reach 32 million by 2028, forecasts suggest

Prevalence set to soar by 40% among older people in eight major country markets, including the UK, forecast suggests

Caroline White

Friday, 13 December 2019

Diagnosed cases of chronic heart failure are set to soar from 26.8 million in 2018 to 32.2 million in 2028 in the eight major markets of the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, Japan and China, reveals a forecast report* from data analysts GlobalData.

The annual growth rate (AGR) is expected to be 2.02% during this period.

Nearly 40% of all diagnosed prevalent cases of chronic heart failure in the eight countries are among older people, and this is forecast to increase by a further 40% by 2028, says the report.

The major drivers for this trend include increasing life expectancy, earlier diagnosis of heart failure, as well as the widespread adoption of effective treatment strategies to manage patients with heart failure and several other conditions.

GlobalData epidemiologists drew on historical incidence and prevalence data obtained from peer-reviewed articles and reports and each country’s population to build their forecasts.

They calculated the number of estimated diagnosed incident hospital admissions for acute heart failure and diagnosed prevalent cases for heart failure severity according to the New York Heart Association functional classification and the American Heart Association staging system.

They calculated that diagnosed prevalent cases of chronic heart failure in the eight countries are projected to increase from 26.8 million in 2018 to 32.2 million in 2028.

There were 12.8 million cases of the disease in China in 2018, which represented nearly half of those in the eight countries The UK had the lowest number of diagnosed prevalent cases in 2018 at 5.50 million, predicted to rise to 7.1 million.

GlobalData epidemiologists forecast an increase in the diagnosed incident cases of heart failure from 2,974,022 in 2018 to 3,638,957 in 2028, at an AGR of 2.24%.

The US will see the highest AGR at 2.91%, while Germany will show the lowest AGR of 1.25%, they predict. Among all eight countries, the US had the highest number of diagnosed incident cases of heart failure in 2018 and 2028, at 1,113,104 and 1,437,401, respectively.

Arunkumar NV, epidemiologist at GlobalData, commented: “The substantial increase in comorbidities such as coronary artery disease and hypertension may be driving the number of diagnosed prevalent cases to rise in the elderly.

“Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction is one of the common cardiac complications of longstanding hypertension. In 2018, the [eight major markets] saw more than half of chronic heart failure patients experience [coronary artery disease] or hypertension as a major comorbid condition.”

Despite advancements in the treatment of chronic heart failure, treatment guidelines are still not being followed for elderly people with chronic heart failure or being offered additional effective therapeutic options to manage the condition in those with multiple conditions.

Arunkumar NV, concludes: “The improvement of screening techniques and diagnostic approaches over the years has led to better diagnoses, as reflected in the increased burden of [chronic heart failure]. Effective strategies to prevent lifestyle diseases such as hypertension and diabetes mellitus during early adulthood may help prevent occurrence in the elderly.”


*Heart Failure – Epidemiology Forecast Report to 2028. A report prepared by GlobalData, December 2019.

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