Just-in-case flu sick days likely to hurt economy
OnMedica Staff
Friday, 20 November 2009
The economic impact of an influenza pandemic is affected less by the disease itself than by balancing “business as usual” against school closure and by obtaining sufficient stocks of vaccines, claim authors of a new study in the British Medical Journal.
The authors used a computer model to look at the effect on the economy of various combinations of mortality and morbidity from pandemic influenza, vaccine efficacy, school closures and prophylactic absenteeism – healthy people staying off work because they don’t want to catch flu.
They found that school closure increases the economic impact, especially for mild pandemics. They also calculated that if widespread behavioural change occurs and there is large-scale prophylactic absenteeism, the economic impact would be considerably increased with few health benefits.
Vaccination using a pre-pandemic vaccine would generate large savings, but these would be roughly doubled if a single dose of a matched vaccine was used.
The authors say “Pandemic influenza itself, if it occurs within the bounds of severity outlined in pandemic plans, will not yield unprecedented economic impacts: even a high fatality pandemic with high levels of infection would reduce gross domestic product by less than 4.5%. However … a pandemic in the near future would impose additional strain on an economy that is already stretched by recession … although the direct economic impact of disease is relatively small, school closures and prophylactic absenteeism, whether imposed by government or the result of fear of infection in the population, could greatly increase the economic impact.
The Department of Health announced yesterday the expansion of the swine flu vaccination programme to include children aged 6 months to 5 years who are not in at-risk groups. This age group is thought to be particularly likely to need hospitalisation if they become infected with the virus. Children of this age who are in at-risk groups have already been targeted.
Professor Steve Field, Chairman of the Royal College of General Practitioners, said: “We shouldn’t underestimate swine flu – it is a nasty infection and its effects can be devastating. I know that some parents have concerns about immunisation but the swine flu vaccine is our most effective protection against the virus. This is obviously a personal choice but I would advise all parents whose children are offered the vaccine to take it up. If you are worried, please talk to your GP and get all the information so that you can make an informed choice.”
The World Health Organization has estimated that about 65 million people have already been vaccinated worldwide against H1N1 influenza, and says that the frequency of adverse events is well within the range expected. It says “Although intense monitoring of vaccine safety continues, all data compiled to date indicate that pandemic vaccines match the excellent safety profile of seasonal influenza vaccines, which have been used for more than 60 years.”
